A window into what we are reading at the Wilson Center’s Environmental Change and Security Program

Southern Africa’s Drought Offers a Window into the Region’s Climate Future

Southern Africa has been hit by one of its worst droughts in decades, and this calamity highlights the vulnerability of smallholder farmers who rely on rainfed agriculture. For the first time, farmers like Esnart Chogani, who works on a farm just outside Zambia’s capital, Lusaka, were unable to bring in a harvest. The region is normally a major exporter of maize, yet it now has begun importing the grain to meet demand.

A new report by the US Intelligence Community highlights what the world stands to lose if it fails to cooperate on global health. The National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) “Dynamics Shaping Global Health Security In the Next Decade” outlines the dire effects of climate change, changing demographics, and the erosion of trust in institutions on global health security. The NIE on Global Health Security was made publicly available in April 2024, on the heels of the Biden-Harris Administration’s launch of a new Global Health Security Strategy.

Historically, efforts to mitigate climate change have taken precedence over building resilience to its impacts. But from Pakistan to the Amazon, communities on the front lines are already experiencing the devastating effects of a warming world.

In recent weeks, devastating floods have claimed the lives of over 450 people in East Africa, as heavy rains linked to El Niño and changing climate patterns overwhelmed communities and infrastructure. Similar tragedies unfolding in Brazil, Pakistan, and Afghanistan underscore the human cost of being unequipped to protect against the worst impacts of climate change.

Central and South Asia’s water resources are critical for the region’s water, energy, food and environmental security. Major rivers in the region originate from the Hindu-Kush-Himalaya, Pamir, and Tien Shan Mountain Ranges and flow across multiple countries. Unique geographical characteristics make water management a complex and challenging task that is further complicated by a changing climate and increasing demand affecting diminishing water resources. 

Libya provides a case study for the long-term impacts of water weaponization. After the 2011 overthrow of Libyan leader Muammar al-Gaddafi, the country faced civil conflict related to his succession, including two bloody civil wars in 2011, and then from 2014 to 2020, until a ceasefire took effect in 2020. During this period of long-term instability and isolation, Libya’s water infrastructure deteriorated. Combined with the country’s limited water resources, increased demand, and poor management, water insecurity soared.

Russia’s devastating invasion of Ukraine just over two years ago upset the larger foreign policy conversations surrounding global stability—and Russia’s role in it. Yet the conflict has brought the concept of water weaponization into the spotlight as well, especially after Russia’s destruction of the Nova Kakhovka Dam and other civilian infrastructure wreaked havoc in the region.

Iran’s southeastern province of Khuzestan—which borders Iraq—was already a dry and dangerous place. It was the site of the fiercest battles in the Iraq-Iran war which followed the Iranian Revolution in 1979, and to this day, the region still has many unexploded landmines.

Yet this legacy of violence is not the only issue facing its residents. As climate impacts mount in Khuzestan, the future looks bleak for both the region’s ecosystems and the people already living on this borderline.